000 AXNT20 KNHC 301714 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE SFC ANALYSIS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE VIS DERIVED WINDS. THIS WAVE IS ASSISTING IN TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 73W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS AS LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE EPAC TOMORROW AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED BY THEN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N21W 4N33W 3N45W 2N51W. THE ITCZ IS VERY ACTIVE TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 18W. SOME OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 36W-45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 10W FROM 2N-5N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE E BAHAMAS INTO THE E GULF AND THE CARIBBEAN. A NARROW AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N91W TO INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE E GULF AND OVER FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 93W. AT THE SFC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. E/ENE FLOW FROM 10-15 KT IS COMMON ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SE WINDS FROM 15-20 KT IN THE SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE W GULF FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NE GULF ON FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NE SECTOR OF THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE EPAC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 85W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM 70W-83W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC STRETCHES WWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. MODERATELY DRY/STABLE AIR COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS EVIDENT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND FURTHER EAST. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BE OCCURRING OVER THE NW COAST OF HAITI AND OVER THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A W ATLC TROUGH. MORE DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE ATLANTIC SECTION. TRADE WINDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA TOMORROW. GFS SUGGEST THAT A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE CENTRAL/WEST CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W TO OVER FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FEW SFC FEATURES. A SFC TROUGH MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW-MID CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS RUNS FROM 31N75W TO 24N80W. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SFC TROUGH IS ON THE FAVORABLE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 21N74W 25N66W 30N58W. TWO WEAK LOWS ARE SITTING ON THIS TROUGH. ONE 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 24N67W AND THE OTHER 300 NM TO THE NE NEAR 28N62W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-71W AND FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 58W-61W. GLOBAL MODELS ANTICIPATE THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT PULLS NEWARD. THEY DO NOT INITIALIZE THE NORTHERN-MOST LOW WELL. FARTHER EAST...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. A WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG 45W FROM 24N-29N IS CONTAMINATING THE SFC RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THIS WEAK FEATURES SEEMS TO BE FALLING APART. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 26N FROM 24W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS IS SUPPLYING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N51W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM OFF AFRICA ALONG 10N TO NEAR 10N30W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI