000
AXNT20 KNHC 300431
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 71W S OF 11N 
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF 
THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE IS 
EVIDENT. ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N25W 4N52W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 20W-36W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S 
OF 6N ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM 35W-46W AND S OF 8N TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 49W-58W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW GULF NEAR 25N94W TO INLAND 
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING AN AREA OF 
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER 
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS 
ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 88W. AND UPPER 
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE FAR E GULF 
BRINGING WITH IT DRY AIR CLEARING OUT THE AFTERNOON 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE GENERATED ALONG THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 85W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC 
EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM 71W-85W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED AT THE BASE OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH N OF 18N FROM 70W-76W. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE 
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 10N80W 
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA GENERATING ONLY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N FROM 74W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY SHOWER FREE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC 29N74W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W 
TO OVER FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED 
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 23N FROM 67W-76W. AT THE 
SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N73W SSW TO OVER THE N 
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N80W. WITH THE DRY AIR PRESENT...NO 
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE IS TO 
THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 19N60W N TO 31N53W. A SECOND 
SURFACE TROUGH LIES BELOW THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM 29N58W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW NEAR 
23N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 58W-63W. 
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N FROM 
27W-42W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE REGION. 
THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC UPPER ZONAL WESTERLY 
FLOW. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N48W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE S 
CARIBBEAN. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E/W FROM OFF AFRICA 
ALONG 10N TO NEAR 10N27W. AT THE SURFACE LARGE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE COVERS THE E TWO THIRDS OF THE ATLC E OF 60W GIVING THE 
AREA SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND REMAINING SHOWERS FREE. 
 
$$
WALLACE