000 AXNT20 KNHC 291716 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA ALONG 68W/69W S OF 10N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE IF ANY WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY ENTER THE EPAC LATE TUE AND SOME MODELS SHOW THE WAVE BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED BY THEN. ...THE ITCZ... A CLUSTER OF WEAKENING MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAKING ITS WAY OFF THE AFRICAN COAST E OF 16W S OF 10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-21W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 52W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N72W IN THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF. MID-UPPER RIDGING IS WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/WEST GULF WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 89W/90W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE W GULF WHICH IS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-97W. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STRONG STORMS OVER S TEXAS...W LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. AN ILL-DEFINED SFC REFLECTION...NOTED AS A TROUGH IN THE 1500 UTC ANALYSIS...LIES ALONG 96W FROM 20N-26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1019 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N87W. SFC WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME 20 KT BUOY OBS IN THE SW GULF IN OR NEAR THE CONVECTION. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE E GULF WEATHER THRU MID-WEEK. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE W GULF THRU WED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE W ATLC AND W CARIBBEAN...NAMELY FROM 60W-83W N OF 17N. THE UPPER AXIS RUNS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N72W TO NEAR 17N86W. AN ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W INTO THE W BAHAMAS ALONG 27N77W 24N80W. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 52W-67W. THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON THE FAVORABLE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST. A WEAK 1016 MB SFC LOW DEVELOPED THIS MORNING NEAR 27N61W WITH SFC TROUGHING NEWARD TO 29N56W AND SEWARD TO 23N59W. SINCE THEN...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1016 MB LOW HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH A NEW LOW-LEVEL SWIRL EVIDENT ON VIS PICTURES NEAR 24N66W. GFS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW...DRIFTING NWARD WITH A COUPLE WEAK SFC LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN. IN THE S CARIBBEAN...BROAD NARROW UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE S AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN RAIN FREE. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ON THE S PERIPHERY OF THE NARROW RIDGE OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15 KT AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THRU MID-WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SFC RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N31W. THE ONLY BLEMISH IN THE E ATLC SFC RIDGE IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N34W 25N44W. ONLY A LINE OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 23N57W 32N53W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH 32N33W 24N36W TO 20N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 33W S OF 20N PRODUCING UPPER DIFFLUENCE HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SEWARD ACROSS NW AFRICA. MANY OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT VERY AMPLIFIED BUT ARE PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N49W 21N28W 25N15W WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. $$ CANGIALOSI