000 AXNT20 KNHC 291101 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2006 CORRECTED FOR STATIONARY FRONT IN ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION INSTEAD OF COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA/ EASTERN COLOMBIA ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 10N. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 7N12W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 4N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W...WHILE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AND PRECIPITATION IS DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THERE IN INTERIOR GUYANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W NORTH OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 20W...AND SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 25W AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER IN EAST TEXAS TO THE MEXICO COAST IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS ARE IN EAST TEXAS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND MOVING OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WEST OF 89W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 90W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR A 33N72W LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THE 90W RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AREA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN HAITI AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 74W...TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION IN COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS STRONG ITCZ-RELATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CLOUD MASSES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR A 33N72W LOW CENTER...OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD TO 30N76W TO 34N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N76W 30N73W 32N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...AND A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N49W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THIS HIGH CENTER AND IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH AND THE TROUGH ALONG 27N62W 20N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 23N57W 32N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF YESTERDAY HAS MOVED A BIT MORE EASTWARD...NOW PASSING THROUGH 32N33W TO 24N36W TO 20N40W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 26N40W TO 24N47W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N34W 27N40W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N40W 25N44W 25N49W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 10N30W TO 20N32W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 26W AROUND A LOW CENTER NEAR 34N18W. $$ MT