000 AXNT20 KNHC 281752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64/65W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 KT ACROSS VENEZUELA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-70W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF VENEZUELA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N30W 2N40W 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN AROUND 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-39W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 20-30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING OVER THE AREA WEST OF 90W...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W. 10-15 KT E/SE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FOUND THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH. AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COST OF TEXAS FROM 27N-29N ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TROUGH THURSDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA... PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN EAST OF 80W...WITH THE DRIEST AIR FROM 11N-14N...INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE EPAC ITCZ. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE TODAY THROUGH TUE WITH TRADES DECREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N37W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 24N-48W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WWD FROM THIS POINT TO 23N64W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21.5-24.5 BETWEEN 55W-65W IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 72/73W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTER BAHAMAS/CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE W ATLC JUST N OF 29N WEST OF 70W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A WEAK RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. BROAD AND LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N16W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES ALONG THE E ATLC...WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. $$ GR