000
AXNT20 KNHC 281057
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED EASTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 63W/64W 
SOUTH OF 9N. NO RAWINSONDE DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN ORDER TO TRACK 
ITS MOVEMENT WELL. NO WELL ORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE
SINCE IT REACHED THE SOUTH AMERICA CONTINENT HAS BEEN RELATED 
MORE TO THE ITCZ THAN ANYTHING ELSE. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
7N65W 8N67W 9N67W IN NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N13W 2N25W 2N40W 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS 
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 
13W AND 16W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W...AND FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM EAST CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NORTHWARD INTO 
EAST TEXAS. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS SAME RIDGE...OR ANOTHER 
SEPARATE PART OF A RIDGE...COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS 
ALONG THE LINE FROM 22N90W TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS FROM THE COAST TO 21N BETWEEN 93W AND 
94W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TEXAS FROM 29N
TO 30N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W.

1HE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 
76W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE COASTS OF 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND LAND. IT IS 
POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ SOLELY. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS 
MOST OF THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE CROSSING 20N BETWEEN 60W 
AND 80W...MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN NORTH OF 20N 
BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 
32N38W TO 27N42W TO 24N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 
24N50W TO 23N63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 32N37W 28N40W 25N50W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 25N50W 23N55W 22N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 24N51W 23N57W 22N62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
FOUND FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 68W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W. THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL IS ALONG 33N/34N BETWEEN 76W AND THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A WEAK RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE 
PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS 
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. BROAD 
AND LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 
26N EAST OF 30W ASSOCIATED WITH A 35N16W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
LOW CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM AN AFRICA COAST LOW CENTER NEAR 25N17W TO THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS TO 14N39W TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER NEAR 12N45W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 18N30W 27N28W.

$$
MT