000 AXNT20 KNHC 280612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED EASTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 9N. NO RAWINSONDE DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN ORDER TO TRACK ITS MOVEMENT WELL. NO WELL ORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME. MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE SINCE IT REACHED THE SOUTH AMERICA CONTINENT HAS BEEN RELATED MORE TO THE ITCZ THAN ANYTHING ELSE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N13W 3N20W 2N30W 2N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE MEXICO COAST IN THE WESTERN GULF TO THE TEXAS COAST AND NORTHWARD. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS SAME RIDGE...OR ANOTHER SEPARATE PART OF A RIDGE...COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS ALONG THE LINE FROM 22N92W TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TEXAS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF PANAMA AND EAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ SOLELY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE CROSSING 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N41W TO 22N47W. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 27N43W TO 24N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 32N37W 28N40W 25N52W 24N56W. MUCH OF THE DISTINCT CLOUD BAND LOSES ITS BETTER DEFINITION WEST OF 50W AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WEST OF 50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 68W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME REMNANT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FROM THE EARLIER WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS HELPING THIS PRECIPITATION TO LINGER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 56W AND 68W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 33N/34N BETWEEN 76W AND GEORGIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A WEAK RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. BROAD AND LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 30W ASSOCIATED WITH A 35N15W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN AFRICA COAST LOW CENTER NEAR 25N17W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N39W TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER NEAR 12N45W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 17N31W 28N29W. $$ MT