000 AXNT20 KNHC 271751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 KT. IT IS APPROACHING EASTERN VENEZUELA. A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN GUYANA TO NORTHERN RORAIMA IN BRAZIL. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N25W 4N40W 3N51W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS NORTH OF ITS AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 25W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT. EPAC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL...OVER THE SE GULF...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE MAJORITY OF CUBA. THE 27/1200 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 40 KT TO 70 KT OVER ALL THIS AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N57W TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OF TEXAS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MON THROUGH WED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING WESTERN PANAMA AND PARTS OF COSTA RICA...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EPAC ITCZ...THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THERE IS A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MUDSLIDES OVER THIS AREA AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEARLY WLY FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC WHILE A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW LIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 45/46W N OF 25N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 31N41W TO 24N50W. A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 22N60W. A NARROW BAND OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1022 HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N57W IS BEHIND THE FRONT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES HIGH LOCATED NEAR 41N23W SW TO 25N38W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE E ATLC...WHERE ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW AFRICA W ALONG 31N25W THEN SW INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N35W. $$ GR