000 AXNT20 KNHC 270616 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/594W SOUTH OF 6N MOVING WEST 10 KT. IT IS MOVING THROUGH GUYANA NOW. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM 3N55W TO 6N60W FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N10W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W 2N50W 3N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 50W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 21N98W 25N90W 28N80W. THIS 21N98W 28N80W LINE IS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND... WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF WINDS GOING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE 27/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 40 KT TO 70 KT SOUTH OF THE 20N96W 27N87W 28N80W LINE OF CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N63W TO THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N89W TO 19N91W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO ARE AT LEAST 300 NM TO 400 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RANGING FROM 30 KT TO 50 KT IS IN THE AREA OF THIS PRECIPITATION. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN IN THIS AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ALSO. THE BAND OF UPPER LEVEL 30 KT TO 50 KT WINDS REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF 17N EAST OF 84W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW FINDS ITSELF IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N46W TO 23N53W TO 19N57W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N49W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N49W TO 23N54W TO 21N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N41W 29N43W 26N47W 21N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONT...THROUGH 32N33W TO 25N38W TO 14N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT GOES FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N63W TO THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 8N30W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN BASED ON THE 27/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 40W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A 23N31W-17N39W-11N47W TROUGH. BROAD AND LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 30W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MOROCCO TO 34N18W TO 33N25W. $$ MT