000 AXNT20 KNHC 261749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE IN SURINAME AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 9N FROM PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA. THE ITCZ IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER PANAMA...JUST NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W 1N50W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 16W. THIS CLUSTER COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID/UPPER TROUGH RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING NW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL AND SE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS S MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL...SE GULF...SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA...AND BEYOND. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 60-80 KT IS PRODUCING THIS BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS OF 150O UTC...A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N62W TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EPAC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA... THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN AND THE MAJORITY OF CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 75W... INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PART OF VENEZUELA. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO DE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A PATCH OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 52/53W COVERING FROM 40W-60W NORTH OF 24N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N46W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 21N58W. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 32N64W. THE AZORES HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 40N20W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE E ATLC TO 24N38W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE E ATLC...WHERE ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN. STRONG UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER MOROCCO COVERS THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS. $$ GR