000 AXNT20 KNHC 261058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT. IT IS MOVING THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA NOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL SURINAME AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 9N FROM PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NOW FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA AND EASTERN PANAMA AND THE PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS JUST OFF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THE ITCZ ALSO IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N10W 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W 5N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2S TO 8N WEST OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH RUNS FROM A POSSIBLY ALREADY WEAKENED SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER TO A SECOND WEAK LOW CENTER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 28N91W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 21N98W 25N90W 28N80W. THIS 21N98W 28N80W LINE IS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND... WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF WINDS GOING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE 26/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 50 KT TO 80 KT SOUTH OF THE 21N98W 28N80W LINE OF CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N68W TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 15N83W AT THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO 19N81W TO 21N73W AND BEYOND 21N68W. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND/WIND BAND ALSO BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WIND SPEEDS IN THIS BAND OF WINDS RANGE FROM 20 KT TO 40 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N65W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 9N FROM PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NOW FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA AND EASTERN PANAMA AND THE PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS JUST OFF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W RANGE FROM 40 KT TO 60 KT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AT 26/0600 UTC. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH SUPPORTS THE TWO ATLANTIC SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 23N56W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 23N56W...SLOWING DOWN IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH...AND IT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N50W 29N46W BEYOND 32N45W. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 39W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND BAND IS NOT AS MUCH AS COMPARED TO THE CLOUD BAND OF 24 HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR 22N30W TO 14N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH PUSHING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TOP OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 22N30W LOW AND THE CAPE VERDE RIDGE...COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 40W. $$ MT