000 AXNT20 KNHC 252322 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 7N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION TO JUST OVER PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W S OF 8N DRIFTING W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 7N17W 5N34W 3N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 16W-27W AND FROM THE EQUATOR 7N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL COVERS THE S GULF. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE IS A WEAKENING 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS S MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING W CUBA AND FAR S FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF OF A LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER S ALABAMA AND GEORGIA MOVING E INTO THE W ATLC BUT ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N62W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 18N88W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING MOST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-75W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N55W TO 28N58W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 26N64W TO 27N71W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 31N71W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS TO THE E ALONG 32N47W TO 27N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N62W COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 25N W OF 45W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 75W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE ENTIRE N COAST OF CUBA AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. SHARP AND NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 31N33W SSW INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N42W. ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N15W N TO 32N22W COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 28W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE AZORES SW ALONG 32N31W TO 24N42W. $$ WALLACE