000 AXNT20 KNHC 251751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST NEAR 5-10 KT. THE WAVE HAS AN ILL-DEFINED INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 280 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER S AMERICA LATER TODAY AND WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 9N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS IN THE EPAC BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENSION LIES OVER PANAMA. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AND EXPANDED THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 7W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO WITHIN 280 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-42W ENHANCED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W/39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA E OF 10W N OF 3N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA SWWARD TO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE UPPER LOW PREVIOUSLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY. BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGING HAS DEVELOPED OVER MEXICO AND THE S CENTRAL U.S. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH AND COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS SE OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL JET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE GULF AND A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A SWATH OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER S FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY BE INFLUENCING SOME INSTABILITY. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N85W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SFC RIDGING IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EXTREME SE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE N LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION E OF 80W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING KEEPING THE AREA RAIN FREE. A TROPICAL SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET LIES ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER JET IS CARRYING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TAPPED FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EPAC AND SPREADING IN NEWARD CARRIED BY THE JET. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ENHANCED BY A SFC TROUGH HAS FORMED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 86W-88W. AT THE SFC...WEAK TO MODERATE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE AREA PRODUCING TRADEWINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS TO THE N OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH HAS PUSHED SEWARD COVERING THE ZONE FROM 50W-70W N OF 25. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE S OF THE AREA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH UPPER RIDGING ALONG 60W. IN BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...A PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC IS CARRIED BY A 80-100 KT UPPER JET WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE ALONG 24N80W 25N60W 32N45W. AT THE SFC...TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE EASTERN-MOST ONE ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N48W 27N55W. A BAND OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY FRONT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 35N55W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N56W 27N64W 27N68W. ONLY A NARROW BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE E ATLC NEAR 20N31W. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE E ATLC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS N AFRICA. AT THE SFC...A 1031 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE SFC PATTERN AND IS SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE E ATLC...IN FACT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ CANGIALOSI