000 AXNT20 KNHC 251041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH PROBABLY IS NOT AT THE SURFACE... APPEARS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N80W 12N82W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF PANAMA...JUST WEST OF COLOMBIA...IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 4N37W 2N44W 2N47W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEAK NORTH CENTRAL GULF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO...APPEARS TO BE COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL DEVELOPED NOW AS IT WAS THEN. THE BROAD SENSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS POSSIBLE CENTER COVERS THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. ANOTHER SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 20 KT TO 45 KT ACCORDING TO THE 25/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA...ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA AND BEYOND 25N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS NOT AS OBVIOUS NOW AS IT WAS THEN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND NOW ARE INLAND IN BELIZE AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO IS FORMING JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N63W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 20 KT TO 45 KT BAND OF WINDS WHICH RUNS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND WESTERN CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N80W 12N82W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF PANAMA...JUST WEST OF COLOMBIA...IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 27N66W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THROUGH 33N60W TO 30N65W. AN ALREADY EXISTING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 24N45W TO 23N52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N60W BEYOND 32N50W. MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N60W 25N70W 24N80W. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N70W 28N60W BEYOND 32N50W. THE 25/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW 100 KT WINDS ABOUT 60 NM NORTHEAST OF THE BASE OF THE 32N62W 27N66W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 17N29W WITH A TROUGH TO 11N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH PUSHING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TOP OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 17N29W LOW AND THE CAPE VERDE RIDGE... COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS AFRICA...FROM MOROCCO EASTWARD...AROUND A TROUGH WITH A CENTER IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO. $$ MT