000 AXNT20 KNHC 250609 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH PROBABLY IS NOT AT THE SURFACE... APPEARS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 10N. EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W HAS LEFT BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 7N9W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 2N45W 3N48W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W... AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W... AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER ALREADY EXISTS OR IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. IT IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. THE BROAD SENSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS POSSIBLE CENTER COVERS THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. ANOTHER SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 40 KT TO 50 KT ACCORDING TO THE 25/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA...ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA AND BEYOND 25N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER NEAR 28N85W. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO/NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLIER DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EASTWARD. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N63W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 40 KT TO 50 KT BAND OF WINDS WHICH RUNS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND WESTERN CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W HAS LEFT BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. IT IS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 10N ALSO. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN OCCURRING FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA INTO WESTERN HONDURAS FOR THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO WESTERN HONDURAS AND REMAINED THERE ONLY. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOPED IN WESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N73W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO 29N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS FOUND THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N70W AND 30N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N32W TO 27N52W TO 26N61W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N60W BEYOND 32N50W. MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N60W 25N70W 24N80W. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N70W 28N60W BEYOND 32N50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 17N29W WITH A TROUGH TO 11N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH PUSHING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TOP OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND PARTS OF AFRICA EAST OF THERE. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THESE TWO EARLIER FEATURES...COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS AFRICA...FROM MOROCCO EASTWARD...AROUND A TROUGH WITH A CENTER IN CENTRAL MOROCCO. $$ MT