000 AXNT20 KNHC 242257 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 7N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W/77W S OF 10N DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W-76W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 5N20W 4N30W 1N40W 1N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N FROM 9W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 14W-22W WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS S OF 7N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK MID/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 29N90W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N98W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE E GULF. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE IS A WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N87W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING W CUBA AND S FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 26N E OF 87W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NE GULF COAST BUT ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 17N89W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N GENERATED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND THE EMERGING TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 60W WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS BERMUDA SW TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 50W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE AREA THEN N ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-30N W OF 50W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-82W ARE MOVING NE TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N36W SW TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 25N39W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N47W. ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 22N28W N TO BEYOND 32N24W COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 25W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS SW ALONG 32N31W TO 25N55W. $$ WALLACE