000
AXNT20 KNHC 241800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. 
INVERTED V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE VIS SATELLITE 
PICTURES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BUT MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ SOUTH OF 4N 
BETWEEN 42W-50W. 

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W MOVING 
SLOWLY WWD.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N 
BETWEEN 75W-77W.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N30W 4N45W 7N48W 6.5N55W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
100-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 35W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SMALL 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF 
THE GULF NEAR 28N86.5W...WHERE LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. 10-15 
SELY WINDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE STATE/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARDS THE 
BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
NW FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO IN MEXICO. THE NW EXTENT OF A BROAD 
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER NE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SW UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 
90W...WHILE CONSIDERABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 
THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W AND FLORIDA. THE SMALL HIGH PRES IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ATLC 
RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 27N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA PRODUCING MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BELIZE COAST. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN VERY CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST OF 
NICARAGUA. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE 
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 
17N62W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE BASIN EAST OF 
75W. SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 82W. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES IS 
STILL SHOWING AN ASH PLUME EXTENDING MAINLY WWD FROM THE VOLCANO 
AT SUFRIERE HILLS IN THE ISLAND OF MONSERRAT. THE SAN JUAN 
AIRPORT IN PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN REPORTED VOLCANIC ASH FOR 
SEVERAL HOURS. TRADEWINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TOMORROW AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DYING FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N60W 27N66W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 31N73W TO 28N80W. MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE 
W ATLC...MAINLY NORTH OF 25N ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURES 
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE AZORES HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
36N20W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR 23N54W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...NEARLY WLY FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE W ATLC DUE TO AN 
UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TROUGH LIES ALONG 
41/42W N OF 15N. AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD ALONG 22/23W. PATCHES 
OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES 
HIGH.  

$$
GR