000
AXNT20 KNHC 241045
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE 
SHOWS CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PREDOMINATELY W OF THE AXIS FROM 
EQ-2N BETWEEN 43W-52W.  

TROPICAL IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W MOVING W 12 KT.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 70W-75W.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 3N40W 5N53W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 
11W-14W...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 16W-20W...AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 
22W-28W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 
32W-35W.   

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W.  
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE E OF 90W.  10-15 SELY WINDS 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED 
ON RADAR OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-29N 
BETWEEN 78W-85W MOVING TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 
26N90W.  CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF.  SUBSIDENCE IS W 
OF 90W...WHILE CONSIDERABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF 
E OF 90W.  EXPECT PATCHES OF CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 87W-89W...ALONG THE COAST 
OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W...AND ALONG THE COAST 
OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 76W-79W.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS 
ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N64W.  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
N OF 12N AND E OF 82W.  SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 82W.  
EXPECT...CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE 
CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 31N80W.  
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONT.  A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 37N19W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 45W DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  A TROUGH IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 
35W-45W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 21N25W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 
20W-35W.  A ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 
10W-50W.   

$$
FORMOSA