000
AXNT20 KNHC 231042
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT.  INVERTED V 
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 
31W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER E COLOMBIA ALONG 69W S OF 10N 
MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 66W-69W.     

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 5N40W 4N50W.  AN 
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 3E-4W MOVING W. 
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 10W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 26W-47W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W.  
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 88W.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 25N92W TO 18N94W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N91W.  
CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 88W.  THE NW EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO E OF 90W.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
BEING ADVECTED OVER THIS AREA.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 27N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
LIGHT CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S 
FLORIDA.       

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 88W-90W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W 
COLOMBIA FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 74W-76W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND 
CUBA.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 
20N72W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AN STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 82W.  SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 82W.  
EXPECT...CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE 
CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 32N80W.  
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONT.  A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 30N39W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N43W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 
15N BETWEEN 37W-50W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N AND E OF 37W.  A 
ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.   

$$
FORMOSA