000
AXNT20 KNHC 230551
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  INVERTED 
V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 
31W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER E COLOMBIA ALONG 68W S OF 10N 
MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 66W-69W.     

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 4N30W 4N40W 3N50W.  AN 
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 5E-4W MOVING W. 
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-20W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 27W-46W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W.  
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 90W.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL FROM 26N89W TO 19N92W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N93W.  
CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 90W.  THE NW EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO E OF 90W.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
BEING ADVECTED OVER THIS AREA.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 27N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
LIGHT CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S 
FLORIDA.       

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA FROM 
15N-18N BETWEEN 89W-91W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND 
OVER W COLOMBIA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 74W-78W.  PATCHES OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AN STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 82W.  SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE 
MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 
82W.  EXPECT...CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO 
HAVE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 32N80W.  
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONT.  A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 30N39W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N43W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 
15N BETWEEN 37W-50W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N AND E OF 37W.  A 
ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.   

$$
FORMOSA