000 AXNT20 KNHC 221810 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 10N MOVING W 20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. HOWEVER...THE ONLY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA ALONG 63W/64W S OF 9N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS ITS SIGNATURE IS BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N32W 3N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS WESTWARD WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 14W AND 22W. ADDITIONALLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INDICATED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W AND 50W...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN TO 25N86W AND WAS DRIFTING WESTWARD...SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS FEATURE. SURFACE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N94W TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE GULF E OF 90W AND AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ITSELF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF GENERALLY WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE THROUGH 24.5N82W 24.5N86W 22N88.5W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR 24N94W WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AND WAS WRAPPING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF. ANTICYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W. THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE E GULF...FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST E OF 90W. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ONLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED W OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PRIMARILY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SOUTHWARD THROUGH 20N87W TO 14.5N88W. THE TROUGH WAS DRIFTING WESTWARD. OVERALL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD 15 KT AND EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-82W. PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...ST THOMAS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA NEAR 19N76W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 82W. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 82W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N56W 25N64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W AND WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 19N76W. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N48W WAS BECOMING ELONGATED WITH TIME AND SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 14N BETWEEN 40W-50W. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-40W. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-40W. $$ COBB