000
AXNT20 KNHC 221100
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT.  LOW 
CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED JUST N OF THE ITCZ WITH VERY 
LITTLE CONVECTION.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N 
BETWEEN 29W-35W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA ALONG 61W S OF 7N 
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS 
ITS SIGNATURE IS BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 
57W-62W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N32W 3N40W 2N51W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 40W-52W.      

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 30N86W.  ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 90W.  
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
THE SE GULF FROM 20N87W TO 24N85W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W.  CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS W OF 90W.  THE NW EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 
90W.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA S OF 27N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT LIGHT 
CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S 
FLORIDA.       

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER BELIZE...AND THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS...FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 86W-90W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-82W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-73W TO 
INCLUDE HISPANIOLA.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF 
HAITI NEAR 19N75W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  SW FLOW WITH 
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W 
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W.  EXPECT...CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.     

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N53W 28N60W.  
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE TROUGH.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
30N38W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC W OF 55W DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED W 
OF HAITI.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 22N50W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 11N BETWEEN 
40W-55W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-40W.  A TROUGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  ELY FLOW IS OVER THE 
TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-40W.   

$$
FORMOSA