000 AXNT20 KNHC 220550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS BEST DESCRIBED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 27W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA ALONG 59W S OF 7N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS ITS SIGNATURE IS BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 57W-62W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N30W 1N40W 2N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 10W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 22W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 43W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE E OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 25N94W TO 19N94W. NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION IS NOTED YET. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 90W. THE NW EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE AREA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 27N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER BELIZE...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND E GUATEMALA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 87W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 79W-81W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-73W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF HAITI NEAR 19N75W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W. EXPECT...CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 23N80W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED W OF HAITI. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 11N BETWEEN 40W-55W. A RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-40W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W. ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-40W. $$ FORMOSA