000 AXNT20 KNHC 220012 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS BEST DESCRIBED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 2N-3N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 3N-4N. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 53W/54W HAS MOVED INLAND S AMERICA AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE ALONG ALONG 57W S OF 7N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS ITS SIGNATURE IS BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA. HOWEVER... SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-7N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N25W 2N33W 2N40W TO INLAND S AMERICA AT 2N50W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-26W..AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41-45W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16.5W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF S OF ABOUT 27N AND E OF 94W WHERE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN W OF 94W N OF 25N. THIS MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF LAST WEEK'S COLD FRONT NOW A TROUGH...IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION DUE TO SLY WINDS TO THE E OF A MID/UPPER LOW OFF NE MEXICO NEAR 24N97W MOVING SSE 15-20 KT. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENE ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT A WET A PATTERN TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28.5N87W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA N OF 26N AND IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND AND E GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N82.5W. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH WESTWARD TO BELIZE. THIS HIGH IS MUCH FARTHER N THAN AVERAGE AND LOOKS MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-SUMMER THAN LATE SPRING CONDITIONS. AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH...TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO 26N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BROKEN MOSTLY LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 75W-78W. PATCHES OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING N ARE N OF 15N W OF 82W TO ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 11N. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG ABOUT 70W/71W WITH A FEW SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-73W. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME ASH IS ALSO IN THE AREA BUT IT IS GETTING HARDER TO SEE ON SATELLITE AS SEEN ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 30N47W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N49W AND INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N56W. THE UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NORTHEASTWARD TO WITHIN 180 NM TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE ALONG 10N51W 20N45W 32N43W. AN UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 22N34W WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE AREA S OF 17N AND E OF 37W AND POKING NORTHWARD TO 31N38W. DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD IS OVER THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 16N E OF 27W TO ACROSS NW AFRICA. THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING TSTMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AFRICA. AT THE SFC...A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30.5N38W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 27N58W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TRADE WINDS ARE RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE