000 AXNT20 KNHC 192310 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 7N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD ROTATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WAVE IS ALREADY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND BE HARD TO TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 1N36W TO THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 1N42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 12N DRIFTING W. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AT THE BASE OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR ANY CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 5N22W 6N32W 4N39W EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 19W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-15W AND N OF THE AXIS FROM 40W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF THE NEW ENGLAND AREA INTO THE NW ATLC CLIPS THE N GULF N OF 27N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A STATIONARY FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N88W...BUT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE S GULF IS UNDER SW UPPER FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO A 1014 MB LOW JUST W OF JAMAICA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES S TO 14N77W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...E OF THE FRONT...FROM COLOMBIA TO AN UPPER HIGH S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THUS...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP E OF THE FRONT N OF 17N TO 70W AND S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER COLOMBIA MOVING ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N FROM 71W-77W INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N73W SW TO 30N78W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF AND W ATLC YESTERDAY REMAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N60W 26N69W ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 21N77W. STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NE TO BEYOND 32N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 27N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 31N. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 30N34W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N42W INTO THE DEEP TROPICS AND SOUTH AMERICA BEYOND 8N61W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N-26N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS N TO 30N25W LEAVING THE E ATLC SHOWER FREE. $$ WALLACE