000 AXNT20 KNHC 191749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 16W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. ALTHOUGH IT IS LOW-LATITUDE..THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-21.5W. TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 41W S OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. A V-TYPE SIGNATURE IS EMBEDDED MOSTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AND THERE IS ALSO GOOD SUPPORT FROM MODEL FIELDS FOR THIS WAVE. LONG TERM LOOPS SUGGEST THAT IT SLOWLY MOVED TO THIS LOCATION AND NOW IS MOVING MORE QUICKLY UNDER THE BUILDING ATLC RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 3.5N36W 3N43W EQ41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS AIDING IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE AXIS OVER WRN COLOMBIA THRU PANAMA S OF 11N. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WAVE IS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W 2N42W EQ50W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES.. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 2N W OF 44W AND FROM 2.5N-6N BETWEEN 10N-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITIES. A PERSISTENT E COAST TROUGH WHICH IS FINALLY HEADING EASTWARD BUT HAVE LEFT A MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING BENEATH THE GULF TROUGH ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE AREA HAS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GULF. RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING ALONG S TEXAS AND 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME MOISTURE ENTERING FROM THE SE ON SUN THAT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS... PERHAPS SPREADING INTO S FLORIDA ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W... COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA... STRETCHING FROM 31N64W INTO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W INTO A WEAK LOW SW OF E CUBA NEAR 19N79W. UPPER WINDS ARE PARALLELING THE FRONT WITH A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT N OF CUBA TO 29N. FARTHER S.. THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT ARE NOW A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF JAMAICA SOUTHWARD TO 13N79W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE W OF THE TROUGH S OF 14N W OF 80W TO JUST ONSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN NE THRU HAITI TO 30N53W... THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE TROUGH MIGRATES WESTWARD. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS HIGH AND DRY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL MAY BE MOISTENING UP SOMEWHAT AS A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE N OF 13N BETWEEN 50W-62W.. INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF TRADEWIND SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TRADES SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THRU 32N32W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N42W THEN INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N48W. THE UPPER LOW HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 41W FROM 19N-24N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTM ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF 24N41W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC... MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES S OF 25N W OF 40W WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING TSTMS IN THE ITCZ. THE RELATED SFC TROUGH IS THE ONLY BLEMISH TO A STRONG 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF THE AZORES. THIS RIDGE IS CAUSING TRADES TO BE NEAR OR STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE BASIN AND ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE STRONG TRADES THRU THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER CAPE VERDES RIDGING NW THRU THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO 10N39W. THIS UPPER HIGH IS MUCH FARTHER N THAN NORMAL WITH DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE HIGH SUPPORTING TSTMS IN THE ITCZ AND THE NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE. $$ BLAKE