000 AXNT20 KNHC 191036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS AIDING IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE AXIS OVER WRN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA E OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 20W. W OF 20W...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A CLUSTER OF WEAKENING MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 2N BETWEEN 2E-2W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS SWD INTO THE GULF N OF 27N. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALL OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS WELL E OF THE AREA. A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL/W GULF NEAR 25N91W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THE S AND CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...FROM 15-20 KT ...ACROSS THE N GULF AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EWD FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF FROM 23N-27N AND S OF 22N W OF 88W. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRES. MODELS INDICATE THAT REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE S GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MON BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS MUCH OF THIS REGION. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE E U.S. AND W ATLC. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME STATIONARY IN MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGRESSING EWD FROM 32N64W TO 26N70W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS E CUBA TO NEAR JAMAICA. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W. FARTHER EAST...A SHARP EWD TITLED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH N OF COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA NEAR 13N71W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS MOISTURE IS THEN ADVECTED NEWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE SFC FRONT. THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 23N-29N WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS THE STRONGEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-84W. THIS SHIELD OF RAIN IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT PULLS NEWD. A WEAK SFC TROUGH OR POSSIBLY A VERY WEAK LOW MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT IS IN THE W BAHAMAS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 23N-27N. A SIMILAR RATHER BENIGN FEATURE IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 79W FROM 26N-31N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN NAMELY E OF 65W...SPREADING SLOWLY WWD. TRADES ARE LIGHT IN THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TRADES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM IN THE CARIBBEAN AS THE WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND A SPRAWLING CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGE BUILDS SWWD. THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THRU 32N30W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N41W THEN INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N53W. THE UPPER LOW HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 26N37W TO 18N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SFC TROUGH CONTAMINATES A SPRAWLING 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N29W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N19W N TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WNW TO 12N34W. BESIDES FOR THE AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW...NEARLY ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC HAS FAIR WEATHER UNDER SFC HIGH PRES. THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SWWD INTO THE CNTRL ATLC THIS WEEKEND SUPPLYING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. $$ CANGIALOSI