000 AXNT20 KNHC 172306 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE WAVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N15W 4N22W 1N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 1W-6N AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-24N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE E US WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE N GULF N OF 26N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CLEARING THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE CONVECTION WELL OUT OF THE AREA. THE S GULF IS UNDER SW UPPER FLOW DUE TO THE BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR COVERS THE N GULF WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N96W. THUS..MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY DOMINATES THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK TRADEWINDS AGAIN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF THE GULF NOW EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA E OF THE FRONT...IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THUS...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE FRONT FROM 72W-81W FROM OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS W CUBA AND HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR W CARIBBEAN CLEAR AND DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE TROPICS INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PLAGUING THE E US AND THE FAR W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 32N74W...TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W...TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W TO BEYOND 32N62W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W A/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NNE TO BEYOND 32N61W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N56W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 32N21W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 25N30W TO 20N38W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 18N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 19N-25N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 6N21W N TO 30N19W AND W TO 10N36W. THIS IS LEAVING THE E ATLC MAINLY SHOWERS FREE. $$ WALLACE