000 AXNT20 KNHC 171726 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHED AHEAD TO 66W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE HAS ACCELERATED INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS POSITIONED NEAR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR THE WAVE.. OTHERWISE LITTLE EFFECTS ARE NOTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N35W 3N51W. POSSIBLE WAVE ALONG 26W IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 3N27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 18W-24W. SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF 3N E OF 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS REMAINING OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. 1018 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE OF NE MEXICO IS CAUSING MUCH DRIER AIR TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE REGION. DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH IS STILL ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COULD STILL CAUSE PERIODIC PERIODS OF CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SE PART OF THE REGION THRU TOMORROW UNTIL THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES THRU. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND GENERATING FAIR WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... A WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N73W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NWD TO HAITI BEYOND 31N60W. TO THE W...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N75W TO 23N82W IN W CUBA SOUTHWARD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN INTO NE HONDURAS. SEVERAL WEAK LOWS ARE ALONG THE FRONT SPURRING AN AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER S...BROAD 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BECAME MORE EVIDENT IN SW CARIBBEAN'S DIFFLUENT UPPER ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE CAYMANS TO NW COLOMBIA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 74W-82W. THE WEATHER IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS QUIET WITH STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE MOSTLY E TO SE TRADES AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. FRONT SHOULD STALL IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME HEAVY RAINS/FLOODING TO E CUBA/JAMAICA BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD LATE FRI. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS COULD APPROACH S FLORIDA ON SUN. THE RESTRENGTHENING OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN. REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 31N39W TO 10N57W IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 20W-60W. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE E ATLC FROM 31N21W TO 22N35W DISSIPATING TO 18N46W. ENHANCED MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 40W. ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURE IS A LARGE BROAD HIGH OVER THE E ATLC... RIDGING NORTHWARD FROM 11N30W TO WESTERN SAHARA AND FROM W AFRICA NEAR 7N11W WESTWARD TO 9N35W. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE IS OVER THE ITCZ S OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TRADES ARE QUITE WEAK IN THE TROPICAL ATLC TODAY BUT RIDGING IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE STRONGEST TRADES IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLC FOR QUITE SOME TIME.. PROBABLY LIMITING THE PENETRATION OF MANY FRONTS. $$ BLAKE