000 AXNT20 KNHC 171056 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 14+N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS RATHER WEAK WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT SIGNATURE DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N30W EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 28W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SURROUND THE AXIS W OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOW MOVING DEEP-LAYERED VORTEX IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ITS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SEWARD. AS OF 09 UTC...IT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO A WEAK 1006 MB LOW JUST W OF KEY WEST THEN THRU THE W CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SMALL SWIRL IN THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELD IS EVIDENT NEAR KEY WEST AND TREATED AS A 1006 MB LOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PULLED WELL E OF THE AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE W ATLC. FAIR WEATHER IS WIDESPREAD W OF 85W UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. SFC WINDS ARE NLY BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 15 KT. A 1016 MB HIGH HAS BUILT EWARD NOW LOCATED NEAR 25N95W. THE COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS TO THE E CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES TO CONTINUE TO BUILD EWD. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND GENERATING FAIR WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NWD FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALONG 25N64W 32N61W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N75W TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 28N78W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR KEY WEST THEN ACROSS W CUBA TO 17N89W. A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS LIE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N84W TO EASTERN CUBA. N OF CUBA...THE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGES WITH THE SFC FRONT AND STRETCHES WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM E CUBA TO 30N72W. THIS SHIELD OF RAIN IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS COLDER THAN -85C IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W MOVING WWARD ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. FAIR WEATHER IS THE RULE E OF 73W IN THE CARIBBEAN AND E OF 65W IN THE W ATLC UNDER DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THRU THU AND THEN WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWARD ACROSS THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO JUST E OF BERMUDA. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N49W IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY/STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 40W-60W KEEPING MUCH OF THIS AREA RAIN FREE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N FROM 25W-55W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N21W 25N32W 19N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT...MOST CONCENTRATED FROM 20N-24N AND N OF 29N. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS SQUEEZED E OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N20W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N43W NEWARD TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 15N17W GENERATING STABLE AIR ALOFT MINIMIZING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 30W. $$ CANGIALOSI