000 AXNT20 KNHC 170537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS RATHER WEAK WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT SIGNATURE DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N30W EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING UP WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 28W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SURROUND THE AXIS W OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOW MOVING DEEP-LAYERED VORTEX IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ITS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO A 1007 MB LOW 120 NM OFF THE COAST OF NAPLES TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA. SIMILAR RAINFALL IS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF THE E GULF E OF 86W S OF 28N. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PULLED E OF THE AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE W ATLC. FAIR WEATHER EXISTS W OF 86W UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. SFC WINDS ARE NLY W OF 86W NEAR 15 KT. THE COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS TO THE E CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GENERATING FAIR WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NWD FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALONG 25N65W 32N62W. A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS LIES ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC AND EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE ALONG 14N85W TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN WITHIN 180 NM TO 30N73W. THIS SHIELD OF RAIN IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N75W TO S FLORIDA THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS COLDER THAN -90C IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W MOVING WWARD ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. FAIR WEATHER IS THE RULE E OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN AND E OF 65W IN THE W ATLC UNDER DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 78W. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THRU THU AND THEN WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LARGE SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW SLOWLY WEAKENING THRU THE WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO JUST E OF BERMUDA. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N51W IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY/STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 40W-60W KEEPING MUCH OF THIS AREA RAIN FREE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N FROM 26W-55W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N22W 26N32W 22N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS SQUEEZED E OF THE FRONT NEAR 24N25W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N45W NEWARD TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 15N17W GENERATING STABLE AIR ALOFT MINIMIZING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 30W. $$ CANGIALOSI