000 AXNT20 KNHC 161812 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. INVERTED V SURFACE SIGNATURE IS NOTED NEAR BARBADOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 56W-62W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 4N40W 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 8W-10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-25W...AND BETWEEN 32W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 48W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A CLASH OF AIR MASSES IS PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W ...TO A 1010 MB LOW N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W...TO S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W. THE FRONT IS MOVING SE. MEANWHILE... TROPICAL CONVECTION IS MOVING NE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA AND IS CONVERGING WITH THE FRONT. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF THE FRONT HAS 10-20 KT NLY WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS DIGGING SE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 82W-105W. DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE N BAHAMAS...TO W CUBA...TO HONDURAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. NLY WINDS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM E OF HONDURAS TO W CUBA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 82W-85W MOVING NE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 68W-72W. LIGHT TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN NEAR. AN AREA OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS OVER THE N COAST OF S AMERICA S OF 12N. EXPECT THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION DURING HE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORE LIGHT CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE N BAHAMAS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 76W AND THE COLD FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N63W. COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N26W 23N40W 20N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. ANOTHER RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 12N26W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 10W-40W. $$ FORMOSA