000 AXNT20 KNHC 161052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. THE CURVATURE OF THE WAVE APPEARS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE BURST ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE AXIS 6 HOURS AGO HAS DIMINISHED. GFS DEPICTS THE WEAK WAVE FAIRLY WELL AND INDICATES THAT SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 4N30W 3N42W 2N51W. NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ARE ALONG OR NEAR THE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DOT THE AXIS WITH ONE MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELL ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-36W AND ANOTHER BETWEEN 40W-42W. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 12W N OF 3N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS SWWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S MEXICO ALONG 29N81W 24N88W 17N93W. THE FRONT IS BROKEN ACROSS S MEXICO AND THEN ACTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TO 27N102W. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GULF E OF 89W FROM 21N-27N. THIS SHIELD OF HEAVY RAIN IS SUPPORTED BY SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND 150-300 MB DIVERGENCE VALUES OF GREATER THAN 20 ACCORDING TO THE UW/CIMSS 09 UTC ANALYSIS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING EWD ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN MOVING ONSHORE FROM TAMPA TO THE FL KEYS. BASED ON IR SAT IMAGERY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS S OF THE FRONT NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN W OF 92W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWARD WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE S GULF UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N62W. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WIDESPREAD E OF 78W S OF 17N WITH THE DRIEST AIR E OF THE EASTERN-MOST ISLANDS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPREADING TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS PULLED OFF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH ALONG 87W FROM 11-22N. AS OF 09 UTC...A 1009 MB SFC LOW APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH NEAR 18N87W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITH SOME OF THE CELLS CONTAINING CLOUD TOP TEMPS COLDER THAN -90C. TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-25 KT WITH A 1022 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE N OF THE AREA. SCATTERED STREAKS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RACING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE TRADES WILL SLACKEN IN THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT OR A REMNANT TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/WED. TRADES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE IN THE E CARIBBEAN THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES GETS SETTLED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY AS THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE GULF SLIDES SEWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TSTMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ARE SPREADING OFFSHORE FROM 25N-31N W OF 75W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. GENTLE UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN TO ALONG 25N67W TO W OF BERMUDA BEYOND 32N66W. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 30N66W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 34W-58W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 38N27W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N29W 27N37W FLATTENING ALONG 25N44W 28N54W. THE 1015 MB SFC LOW PREVIOUSLY AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT LIES ALONG 24N40W 20N50W 17N60W. SFC FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM 20N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 30W-40W. FARTHER EAST...RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER AXIS STRETCHING FROM 10N40W TO 23N16W. A 1019 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N25W. MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 40W IS DOMINATING BY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA RAIN FREE AND THE ITCZ FAIRLY QUIET. $$ CANGIALOSI