000 AXNT20 KNHC 160544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WHILE THE CURVATURE OF THE WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED WITHIN 90 NM FROM 12N56W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 3N25W 5N37W 3N51W. NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ARE ALONG OR NEAR THE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DOT THE AXIS WITH ONE STRONG CELL ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-38W AND ANOTHER BETWEEN 47W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 12W N OF 2N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS SWWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM N FLORIDA TO S MEXICO ALONG 31N82W 24N92W 19N96W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TO 27N102W. A POSSIBLE SFC LOW MIGHT BE FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF 23N93W...THIS WAS DEPICTED AS A WARM FRONT TO REPRESENT A FRONTAL WAVE IN THE 03 UTC SFC ANALYSIS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GULF E OF 94W FROM 21N-27N. THIS SHIELD OF HEAVY RAIN IS SUPPORTED BY SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND 150-300 MB DIVERGENCE VALUES OF GREATER THAN 20 ACCORDING TO THE UW/CIMSS 03 UTC ANALYSIS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING EWD ONSHORE OF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM KEY WEST TO NEAR TAMPA WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TSTMS. ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY THIS AREA OF RAIN OVER S FLORIDA LOOKS SIMILAR TO AN AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN W OF 94W AND N OF 28N. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWARD WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE S GULF UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON WED. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N62W. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WIDESPREAD E OF 78W S OF 17N WITH THE DRIEST AIR E OF THE EASTERN-MOST ISLANDS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPREADING TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH ALONG 89W FROM 15-22N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER VENEZUELA...COLUMBIA AND PANAMA WITH SOME OF THE CELLS CONTAINING CLOUD TOP TEMPS COLDER THAN -85C. TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-25 KT WITH A 1023 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE N OF THE AREA. SCATTERED STREAKS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RACING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE TRADES WILL SLACKEN IN THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT OR A REMNANT TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE/WED. TRADES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE IN THE E CARIBBEAN THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES GETS SETTLED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TSTMS HAVE MOVED INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ARE SPREADING OFFSHORE FROM 25N-30N W OF 75W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. GENTLE UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN TO ALONG 25N67W TO W OF BERMUDA BEYOND 32N70W. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 29N67W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 35W-58W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 35N32W TO 28N37W FLATTENING TO 27N49W. A DISSIPATING 1015 MB SFC LOW LIES AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT NEAR 31N56W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE E OF THE FRONT. SFC FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM 21N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 30W-39W. FARTHER EAST...RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER AXIS STRETCHING FROM 10N40W TO 23N16W. A 1019 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 22N24W. MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 40W IS DOMINATING BY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA RAIN FREE AND THE ITCZ FAIRLY QUIET. $$ CANGIALOSI