000 AXNT20 KNHC 151718 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE N OF ITCZ APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 51W-55W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 4N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-6W BETWEEN 10E-5W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 40W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 57W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N83W 26N94W 24N98W 25N100W. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 24N94W 19N96W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 92W-97W DUE TO BOTH THE FRONT AND SQUALL LINE. THE NW GULF N OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W HAS 20-25 KT NLY WINDS. IN CONTRAST THE SE GULF S OF THE FRONT AND E OF 90W HAS 5-10 KT SLY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUESDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF URABA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 76W-78W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N77N. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION DURING HE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N68W. WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N58W 28N60W 25N68W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N29W. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N19W 27N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-80W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 14N27W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 10W-40W. $$ FORMOSA