000
AXNT20 KNHC 151108
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT.  SUSPECTED 
SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N EMBEDDED IN ITCZ.
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT INCREASING IN AMOUNT AND 
CONCENTRATING NOW FROM 8N-10N WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  7N12W  6N25W  3N36W  2N40W  3N51W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 2W-15W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
N OF AXIS W OF 51W.   

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT ENTERING N GULF COASTAL WATERS BRINGS PLENTY OF 
CLOUDINESS AND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY.  LARGE MCC SURROUNDS LOW PRES 1006 MB 
OVER TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER HAS DECREASED CONVECTION LAST 6 HRS.  
JET STREAM 110 KT TURNING AROUND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER 
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING 
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS COASTAL 
WATERS AND FURTHER SOUTH.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS 
PREVIOUSLY OVER GULF ESCAPING THE ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT ENTERING 
GULF WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION 
SPREADING IT ALL EASTWARD THROUGH WED.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS CONTINUE UNDER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN AS DIFFUSING 
COLD FRONT STALLS N OF GREATER ANTILLES RELAXING PRES GRADIENT. 
NW CARIBBEAN UNDER A SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE ADVECTED E-NE BY 
HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER ABC ISLANDS.  MOISTURE TRIGGERING 
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N NICARAGUA 
ACROSS TO CUBA AND N OF JAMAICA.  ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE OVER 
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 68W PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUD 
COVERAGE WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER VENEZUELA AND SW 
CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT OVER W ATLC ALONG 31N60W 24N69W THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE 
TO 22N76W AND LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG ITS 
BOUNDARY.  ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG SRN PART MOSTLY ASSOCIATED 
WITH INFLOW OF MOISTURE FROM E PAC ACROSS YUCATAN RATHER THAN 
FRONT.  HIGH PRES 1018 MB OVER CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N44W.  TAIL 
END OF COLD FRONT OVER E ATLC ALONG 31N20W 25N30W.  NARROW BAND 
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT LACKING SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.  SECOND RIDGE OVER E ATLC NEAR 22N23W WEAKENING 
UNDER COLD FRONT E PUSH.  UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS AT 13N25W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES