000
AXNT20 KNHC 150739
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT.  VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON WAVE AXIS 
NEAR 6N EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH 
WAVE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 5N-10N. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N14W 4N26W 4N36W 6N48W 5N54W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-27W.  
SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 50W.   

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT BORDERING N GULF COASTAL WATERS BRINGS PLENTY OF 
CLOUDINESS AND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY.  LARGE MCC SURROUNDS LOW PRES 1006 MB 
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  JET STREAM 110 KT TURNING AROUND UPPER 
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER N LOUISIANA WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ENHANCING STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS 
COASTAL WATERS.  REMAINDER OF GULF REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL S OF AREA WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AND 
LIGHTER WINDS WHICH WILL DETERIORATE AS COLD FRONT SPREADS ITS 
WEALTH OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION 
RELENTLESSLY THROUGH WED.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS CONTINUE UNDER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN AS DIFFUSING 
COLD FRONT STALLS N OF GREATER ANTILLES RELAXING PRES GRADIENT. 
NW CARIBBEAN UNDER A STREAM OF ADVECTED UPPER MOISTURE BY HIGH 
PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA.  MOISTURE TRIGGERING 
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA ACROSS 
TO CUBA AND N OF JAMAICA.  ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SW 
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 70W PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND SW 
CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT OVER W ATLC ALONG 31N62W 25N70W 23N77W BECOMING 
DIFFUSE LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG IT BOUNDARY N 
OF 26N.  ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG SRN PART MOSTLY ASSOCIATED 
WITH INFLOW OF MOISTURE FROM E PAC ACROSS YUCATAN RATHER THAN 
FRONT. HIGH PRES 1020 MB OVER CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N48W.  
TAIL END OF COLD FRONT OVER E ATLC ALONG 31N23W 25N32W.  NARROW 
BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT BUT LACKING 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  SECOND RIDGE OVER E ATLC NEAR 23N25W 
WEAKENING UNDER FRONTAL E PUSH.  UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS AT 13N25W.  
===
$$
WALLY BARNES