000 AXNT20 KNHC 142350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N48W...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 6N-10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 44W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N30W 5N40W 6N47W 5N54W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 16W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 51W-65W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MEXICO NORTH OF 21N. THE REMA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 142350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N48W...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 6N-10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 44W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N30W 5N40W 6N47W 5N54W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 16W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 51W-65W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MEXICO NORTH OF 21N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT SLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE GULF HAS PREDOMINATELY WNW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE NRN GULF STATES FROM TEXAS TO N FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTERNOON HEAT INDUCED SHOWERS ARE OVER PARTS OF CUBA...JAMAICA AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N COLOMBIA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 4.5N-8.5N EAST OF 65W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING N GUATEMALA AND W NICARAGUA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62N. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS CROSSING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA N OF 15N. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND W OF 70W PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS. ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL BLOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N63W 25N70W 23N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 57W-61W. 1020 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N47W. TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 31N23W 27N30W. A NARROW BAN OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 60W. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE E ATLC NORTH OF 20N W OF 50W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 13N25W. $$ GR