000 AXNT20 KNHC 141806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N20W 5N40W 6N47W 4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 9W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 15W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT SLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND SE TEXAS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 88W-98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE GULF HAS PREDOMINATELY WNW FLOW. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NRN GULF STATES FROM N FLORIDA TO TEXAS. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-28N. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY MONDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... TAIL END OF DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REACHES N CUBA NEAR 23N81W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N71N. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AND W OF 70W PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTION DURING HE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING E. MORE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA... AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W 29N67W 23N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 61W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF FRONT E OF 70W. 1022 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N46W. TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N23W 27N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 60W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 14N25W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-25N BETWEEN 10W-50W. $$ FORMOSA