000 AXNT20 KNHC 140544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION APPEARS ON SAT PIX TOO FAR SW REMOVED FROM WAVE CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 41W-45W. GFS 00Z RUN HAS GOOD INITIAL POSITION AND BRINGS WAVE EFFECTS TO WINDWARD ISLANDS BY TUE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 6N45W 5N52W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM EQUATOR TO ITCZ AXIS E OF 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER GREAT LAKES DRIFTING S HAS LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SW ACROSS CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW GENERATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS AREA N OF 23N AND EXTENDING INTO SW N ATLC. AT THE SFC...1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER E GULF KEEP CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER ERN HALF AND INCREASING RETURN FLOW W OF 90W. HIGH PRES DRIFT E OF AREA MON AS HEALTHY COLD FRONT ENTERS NW GULF. GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ABUNDANT WATER SUPPLY BEING FED BY UPPER UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL GIVE THIS FRONT GOOD PUSH ACROSS GULF...POSSIBLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE AHEAD OF IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVIOUSLY OVER COSTA RICA HAS EXTENDED HORIZONTALLY NOW COVERING FROM ERN VENEZUELA THROUGH W OF 90W. SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ADVECTING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E PAC ITCZ HELPING ITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 100W. N EDGE OF RIDGE NEVERTHELESS HAS CONFLUENT FLOW WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN GULF OF MEXICO PARAGRAPH AND DRIES AIR MASS SIGNIFICANTLY S OF 16N. RIDGE HAS PROMPTED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS INLAND COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM E PAC CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ADVECTING NE BY RIDGE ACROSS YUCATAN-HONDURAS INTO NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH CUBA AND INTO SW N ATLC ALONG WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. AT THE SFC...TAIL END OF SW N ATLC COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS W-CENTRAL CUBA IS DISSIPATING IN CARIBBEAN. WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVING INTO ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA MON WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT AND INCREASE TRADES ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGES OF BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK COLD FRONT 31N68W 23N79W HAS MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS STRETCH WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 31N27W 26N40W THEN BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N48W. SFC TROUGH 150 NM E OF FRONT IDENTIFIED BY BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. HIGH PRES 1020 MB AT 24N50W AND IN E ATLC...A 1021 MB HIGH PRES AT 24N24W HAS RIDGING STRETCHING SWWARD TO 16N36W. IN TROPICAL ATLC...BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 13N30W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 6N-15N E OF 34W. WEAK 50 KT JETSTREAM ORIGINATES ON W PERIPHERY OF UPPER ANTICYCLONIC. $$ WALLY BARNES