000 AXNT20 KNHC 131731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 43W S OF 9N BASED UPON CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS NEW POSITION ALSO CONSIDERS CONTINUITY OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE WAVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE AXIS POSITION IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 40W-43W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 2N30W 4N40W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18N-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 40W-43W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION LIES E OF 18W MAINLY BETWEEN EQ-5N. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 46W GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS SWWD ACROSS THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 26N...SINKING SEWARD. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD S OF 26N. AT THE SFC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 150 NM S OF THE MS/AL COAST NEAR 28N88W. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES N OF 26N. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE N E OF THE HIGH...TRANSITIONING TO SLY IN THE W GULF. SMOKE PLUMES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE E OF THE AREA LATE TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF. THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AND MAY CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERATING DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF 17N KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION SHOWER FREE. THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE HAS PROMPTED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS INLAND COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM A CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE EPAC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MAINLY ACROSS THE W COAST OF MANY CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES AND IN THE EPAC. AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLC COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS W CUBA. THE WEAK SFC PRES GRAD IS KEEPING THE TRADEWINDS RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. A BROAD SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED NE OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE TRADES SLIGHTLY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SUPPORTING A SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N69W 24N77W TO W CUBA. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH WITHIN 180 NM TO THE E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS PROMPTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLC N OF 22N FROM 35W-50W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N32W 28N37W 27N46W THEN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N56W. A SFC TROUGH IS 150 NM TO THE E OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N28W 24N37W 20N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING ALONG 65W IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEXES. AT THE SFC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N52W AND A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 19N56W. IN THE EAST ATLC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N23W WITH SFC RIDGING STRETCHING SWWARD TO 16N36W. FAIR WEATHER EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N30W GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 6N-15N E OF 34W. A TROPICAL JET ORIGINATES ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND RACES TO THE NE ALONG 12N61W 25N36W 31N25W. $$ CANGIALOSI