000 AXNT20 KNHC 122312 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 36W/37W S OF 9N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS PREVIOUSLY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N14W 3N26W 4N34W 2N44W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 8W-17W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 8N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUING ACROSS THE S GULF ALONG 22N92W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 1894W RETURNING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION BUT HAVE NOT ENTERED THE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS E CUBA COVERS THE FAR S GULF S OF 24N. REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE UNDER NEAR ZONAL FLOW. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NE OVER MEXICO THERE ARE NO OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL NOT INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL LATE SUN INTO MON. THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS ALONG 83W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM NW VENEZUELA TO PANAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 11N E OF 77W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 75W SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ACROSS THE PENINSULAS OF HAITI GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM 67W-70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ORIGINATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 72W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N74W EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM A WEAK UPPER HIGH NEAR 24N65W N TO BEYOND BERMUDA. THIS IS AIDING IN THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N FROM 65W-70W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLC N OF 21N FROM 30W-60W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA ALONG 32N FROM 38W-50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 31N35W SW TO 24N47W WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH TO THE W NEAR 26N54W. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N36W TO BEYOND 32N30W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N30W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO 24N28W AND W TO NEAR 10N56W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NE ATLC WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N20W. $$ WALLACE