000 AXNT20 KNHC 121058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS REPOSITIONED ALONG 31W/32W BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N20W 5230W 3N40W 5N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-32W...JUST BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM EQ-6N WEST OF 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N85W 2ON93W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF VERACRUZ...THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. AS OF 1000 UTC...DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A VERY WELL DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RELATED TO THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LINE EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO EVERGLADES. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL AFFECTING NE MEXICO AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 88W/89W. REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MIAMI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BE SE OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL BLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILT IN TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER HONDURAS...GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NW UPPER FLOW W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE STILL GENERATING MODERATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. SE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA COULD REACH WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN US. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W NNE TO BEYOND 32N75W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 45W-70W. THERE ARE SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N76W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ALONG 74W/75W JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW ATLC FROM 24N68W TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W...WEAK 1016 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N55W...AND A DEEPENING 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30.5N43W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N57W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 28N-31N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E OF 45W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 23N30W. AN UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N. $$ GR