000 AXNT20 KNHC 112322 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 33W/34W S OF 9N MOVING W 5-10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE BUT STILL FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N10W 5N15W 3N26W 5N35W 3N44W 5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 7W-12W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-33W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 33W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 25N91W OFF THE MEXICO NEAR 23N96W THEN DIPS FURTHER S TO S OF TUXPAN...THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 45 NM OF 26N85W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED ARE ACTUALLY IN THE GULF WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF VERACRUZ. REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF COAST GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NE OVER MEXICO THERE ARE NO OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER HONDURAS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NW UPPER FLOW W OF 80W. THIS IS GENERATING MODERATE/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA FROM NW VENEZUELA TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 82W SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOVING SE INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W NNE TO BEYOND 32N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N FROM 74W-78W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 45W-71W. BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH ARE SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES...A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC FROM 25N66W TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W...WEAK 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N57W...AND A DEEPENING 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N47W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 22N54W. MODERATE SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED THE SW ATLC SURFACE TROUGH ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 60W-69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 22N51W-TO 31N40W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E OF 45W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N38W AND A 1017 MB FURTHER E NEAR 30N27W AND A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH SEPARATING THEM. STRONG UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N WITH THE AXIS ALONG 10N/12N KEEPING THE ITCZ CONVECTION TO THE S. $$ WALLACE