000
AXNT20 KNHC 111800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 32W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  
THE WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE IN SCOPE BUT STILL PRESENTS A FAIRLY 
WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 
3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-37W.  

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 6N32W 4N40W 3N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 5W-10W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-28W...FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 37W-41W... 
AND ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 46W-53W.     

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
TO MEXICO S OF TAMPICO ALONG 30N85W 26N90W 21N97W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER N FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  20-25 KT NLY FLOW 
IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT...WHILE 10-15 KT SLY 
FLOW REMAINS S OF THE FRONT.  LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE 
S OF THE FRONT.  FIRES ARE STILL ACTIVE OVER W CUBA W OF 80W 
PRODUCING MORE SMOKE FOR THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 88W.  UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE 
GULF N OF 22N.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  
EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THE EXTREME S GULF S OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE 
CONTINUED SLY FLOW WITH SMOKE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 21N68W TO 16N72W.  
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 
60W-70W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 9N-11N 
BETWEEN 70W-72W.  10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...W CUBA W OF 80W HAS NUMEROUS FIRES 
FEEDING SMOKE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS 
AREAS OF CONVECTION ALL AROUND PUERTO RICO N OF 15N.  LOCALIZED 
FLOODING OVER THE ISLAND IS LIKELY.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 
14N89W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N E OF 75W.  
EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN ...AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 
MAINTAIN A PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N70W.  A 1012 MB 
LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N47W.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS SW ALONG 24N50W 21N55W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  A 1018 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N40W.  A 
SMALL TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 27N31W 24N34W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W.  A TROUGH IS BETWEEN 50W-75W.    
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLANTIC N OF 8N 
BETWEEN 10W-50W.  ELY FLOW IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM EQ-8N 
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

$$
FORMOSA