000 AXNT20 KNHC 111049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE THIS MORNING. ITS AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO FOUND ALONG AND WITHIN 50-70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...BUT MAINLY E OF 36W AND BETWEEN 48W-52W . ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE E US DIPPING S OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. AS OF 0600 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N87W TO INLAND IN NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS AFFECTING THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO NORTH OF 22N. AN AREA OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 11N E OF HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTRED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTOR OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALSO THE MONA PASSAGE. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MODEL IS DEVELOPING A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR SO. THIS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED CLOSE TO LAKE MARACAIBO AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 11N FROM 55W-75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N82W TO 26N80W. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N50W ALONG 23N53W 21W61W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 55W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH A ANOTHER WEAK 1017 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N40W. AN UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N WITH THE AXIS ALONG 10N/12N. $$ GR