000 AXNT20 KNHC 110551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 3N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7.5N E OF 13W TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BRAZIL FROM4S-2N BETWEEN 41W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE E US DIPPING S OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF ALONG 31N92W 28N95W TO INLAND IN NE MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO NORTH OF 21N. THERE ARE NO OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE W CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADEWINDS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TO BELOW 20 KT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 11N E OF HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE AROUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 11N FROM 55W-75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W SW TO 26N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N82W TO 27N79W. A SQUALL LINE IS JUST EAST OF SE COAST OF GEORGIA ENTERING FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES NEAR 31N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH... REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N49W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 21N58W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 55W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N31W. AN UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N WITH THE AXIS ALONG 10N/12N. $$ GR