000
AXNT20 KNHC 101753
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 4N30W 1N50W.  VERY LARGE 
CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF GUINEA 
FROM EQ-9N BETWEEN 7E-3W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 
3N-7N BETWEEN 7W-17W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-24W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-34W.  
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM EQ-5N 
BETWEEN 45W-55W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER S FLORIDA ALONG 27N80W 
28N83W.  NO RAIN OR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  10-15 KT SLY 
FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W...WHILE 15-20 KT SLY 
FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF.  LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE 
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. FIRES ARE STILL ACTIVE OVER W CUBA W OF 
80W PRODUCING MORE SMOKE FOR THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 88W.  UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE 
GULF N OF 22N.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  
EXPECT THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE.  A NEW FRONT WILL 
COME OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT WITH 
CONVECTION.  THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO 
BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL HAVE 
CONTINUED SLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER.  SMOKE WILL REMAIN S OF THE 
NEW FRONT.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA E OF 80W.  THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE 
FLOW.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...W CUBA W OF 80W HAS NUMEROUS FIRES 
FEEDING SMOKE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 64W-68W. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF 
URABA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 76W-79W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA 
RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA 
NEAR 11N82W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N E OF 
70W.  EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN ...AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 
MAINTAIN A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N65W 27N73W 27N80W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE 
BAHAMAS.  A 1014 MB LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
28N51W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
ALONG 23N53W 20N60W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 24N40W.   
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  
A TROUGH IS BETWEEN 50W-70W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE E ATLANTIC N OF 8N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  ELY FLOW IS OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

$$
FORMOSA