000 AXNT20 KNHC 101048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N24W 2N40W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF SW AFRICA TOWARD THE GULF OF GUINEA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80-100 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4S-2N BETWEEN 55W-65W...AND ALONG THE COASTLINE OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W FROM THE W ATLC IS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER N FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE W CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF SW TO W UPPER FLOW. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 95W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO. A 1004 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 22N-96W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO IN MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR 15 TO 20 ELY WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE SEA...MAINLY EAST OF 80W. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE AROUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. OTHER SHOWERS ARE SEEN CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS TSTM ACTIVITY. NO MAJOR CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS N OF 26N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N67W TO A WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N75W CONTINUING W OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 25N E OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N27W ALONG 28N40W TO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N49W THEN SW TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE JUST E AND NE OF THE CENTER. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS NEAR 24N40W. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE ATLC EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. $$ GR