000
AXNT20 KNHC 100558
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 6N24W 2N40W 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SW AFRICA FROM 6N-13N E OF 
THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80-100 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS E 
OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FROM 
2S-4N BETWEEN 54W-63W...INCLUDING THE SE PORTION OF VENEZUELA.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA CROSSING 
JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING AN 
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE...SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER 
HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE 
SE UNITED STATES GIVING THE GULF SW TO W UPPER FLOW. SOME UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN 
TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST 
NORTH OF 20N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS VIRTUALLY SHOWER 
FREE. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
TONIGHT. MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF THURSDAY MORNING.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWIND OF AROUND 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. A BROAD MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES OVER THE LESSER 
ANTILLES. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GREATER 
ANTILLES AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE SEA...MAINLY EAST OF 80W. 
TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE AROUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT MAINLY ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE. A 
LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTM EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF 
PUERTO RICO WNW AND CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COASTLINE. REMNANTS OF 
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA...MOVING 
TOWARD THE EPAC. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS 
TSTM ACTIVITY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS N OF 26N WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N67W TO A 
WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N76W CONTINUING W OVER NORTH 
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS 
THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 25N E OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS 
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N30W ALONG 28N40W TO A 
1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N51W THEN SW TO E OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 21N-24N. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE 
TROPICS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
SEEN OVER THE ATLC EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. 

$$
GR